A Natural Sequence of Socio-Technical Transition Pathways

This paper provides a simplified analysis of possible sequences transition pathways to deepen understanding scenarios. The exhibit ranking succession in which the transformation pathway (T) is first sequence terms both landscape pressure (PL) and niche maturity levels (γn). next along two variables PL γn reconfiguration (R). Beyond R, substitution (S) significantly higher whereas de-alignment/re-alignment (D/R) PL. on among pathways, namely S D/R depends difference rates change (i.e. PL/t) γn/t) R (PL.D/R – PL.R) (γn.S γn.R). A PL/t γn/t and/or shorter PL.D/R PL.R γn.S γn.R support T-R-D/R-S lower larger favours T-R-S-D/R sequence. In case equivalent γn.R, also γn/t, then beyond fifth scenario (X) combines part characteristics has been discussed. view deviations from this assumption theory, changes (and hence X) might not be linear determined by slope δPL/δγn while status X with respect at any time its parametric proximity that time. Moreover, turn history affected policy action improves overall performance-cost ratios (γn) regime (γr) technologies, γn/γr. However, all case, there need establish accurate measurements for enhance certainty